Post by Frenchie on Sept 21, 2010 8:47:16 GMT 1
With the devastating September 11 attacks in the United States and the rising profile of Islamic extremists over the past decade, the terrorist threat in Northern Ireland had faded in the consciousness of many people in the UK.
As the media focused on Al Qaeda as the main threat to the West, the peace process in the province was still quietly gathering momentum. And as the British military operation gradually began to draw down – finally concluding in 2008 – it seemed that the dark days of IRA attacks had been consigned to history.
While huge progress had undoubtedly been made, Republican splinter groups, dissatisfied with the new political commitment of their former leaders have continued to ply their trade, albeit on an extremely limited scale.
But when two soldiers and a police officer were shot dead in separate incidents last year, the sense of history repeating itself became an uncomfortable reality once again. The PSNI – backed by the new Northern Ireland Ministry of Justice – is now facing a threat that has climbed to a level that even senior security professionals admit had not been anticipated.
“The Security Service, as part of the arrangements to facilitate the devolution of policing and justice under the Good Friday Agreement, assumed the lead responsibility for national security intelligence work in Northern Ireland in October 2007,” MI5 Director Jonathan Evans said in a speech to the Worshipful Company of Security Professionals.
“At that point our working assumption was that the residual threat from terrorism in Northern Ireland was low and likely to decline further as time went on and the new security arrangements took root – sadly this has not proved to be the case.
“On the contrary, we have seen a persistent rise in terrorist activity and ambition over the last three years,” Mr Evans added. “Perhaps we were giving insufficient weight to the pattern of history over the last hundred years, which shows that whenever the main body of Irish Republicanism has reached a political accommodation, a hardliner group would fragment off.”
By any reckoning, this has proved to be the case. The threat is certainly credible – and while it may be far lower than the days of the Provisional IRA’s campaign, it is becoming more sophisticated with the terrorist deploying weapons including Semtex. In the wake of the growing problem, some officers have voiced anger that the political establishment has not recognised that the PSNI is increasingly ill-equipped to deal with attacks.
They point out that military infrastructure has been largely dismantled with Northern Ireland now transformed to a peacetime garrison housing a fully deployable brigade. While Ammunition Technical Officers from the Royal Logistic Corps can provide assistance with suspect devices – and there is a public order capability available in some cases – there are concerns that the PSNI will be pushed to breaking point in the next 12 months.
Terry Spence, Chairman of the Police Federation of Northern Ireland, believes that some politicians are deluded about to the nature of the dissident threat – and that the unwillingness to accept the truth is frustrating his members.
He also warned that, after starting with 12,500 personnel 12 years ago with 13,000 soldiers in support, there are now just 7,200 PSNI officers, with numbers set to fall by 700 next year and a £230 million budget cut potentially costing 1,500 more.
“We are rapidly approaching a stage which can either become the point of no return or the opportunity to be seized which will end a terrorist campaign before it gets fully underway,” Mr Spence told the Federation’s annual conference.
“We should start by reversing some of the recent decisions on policing – the dismantling of the intelligence networks, both human and electronic was hasty and premature and de-fortification of vulnerable police stations showed worrying operational naiveté. And the rundown of The Full Time Reserve Service and failure to ring fence the severance packages of experienced officers in order to postpone their departure was utter foolishness.”
Mr Spence has also voiced concerns about the official definition of a terrorist attack as one being aimed at the security forces. He argued that – if common sense had been applied – it would have been realised that 90, rather than 34, terrorist incidents had been reported since the beginning of the year.
“Disingenuous descriptions like this only serve to undermine public confidence in the fact that we are determined to address the security situation in a credible manner,” he said. “People must stop kidding themselves and trying to fool the public – we need 1,000 extra officers to end terrorism.”
Mr Spence said there had been successes against the terrorists, with 54 arrests this year. He also said that the intelligence picture had been building and praised the co-operation of colleagues across the border in the Garda.
But with the forthcoming Olympic Games and centenary of the Titanic’s voyage in 2012 – both of which are being seen as valuable opportunities for tourism – he warned that taking no action could have serious consequences.
“Those who have come to serve in Northern Ireland should recognise that the centuries old nature of the divisions that plague our communities – those divisions remain deep seated,” he concluded. “Today’s violence cannot be dismissed as some minor obstacle on the road to peace. It is an intensification of a long-running terrorist campaign that refuses to accept democratic reality.”
It is a convincing argument. While terrorists are very much in a minority in a Northern Ireland which wants to move forward, there is still a hard core intent of causing trouble and taking the lives of police officers. Denying the problem – and failing to deploy the necessary resources – could allow the situation to gain momentum and ultimately cost lives.
Source: NIVA
As the media focused on Al Qaeda as the main threat to the West, the peace process in the province was still quietly gathering momentum. And as the British military operation gradually began to draw down – finally concluding in 2008 – it seemed that the dark days of IRA attacks had been consigned to history.
While huge progress had undoubtedly been made, Republican splinter groups, dissatisfied with the new political commitment of their former leaders have continued to ply their trade, albeit on an extremely limited scale.
But when two soldiers and a police officer were shot dead in separate incidents last year, the sense of history repeating itself became an uncomfortable reality once again. The PSNI – backed by the new Northern Ireland Ministry of Justice – is now facing a threat that has climbed to a level that even senior security professionals admit had not been anticipated.
“The Security Service, as part of the arrangements to facilitate the devolution of policing and justice under the Good Friday Agreement, assumed the lead responsibility for national security intelligence work in Northern Ireland in October 2007,” MI5 Director Jonathan Evans said in a speech to the Worshipful Company of Security Professionals.
“At that point our working assumption was that the residual threat from terrorism in Northern Ireland was low and likely to decline further as time went on and the new security arrangements took root – sadly this has not proved to be the case.
“On the contrary, we have seen a persistent rise in terrorist activity and ambition over the last three years,” Mr Evans added. “Perhaps we were giving insufficient weight to the pattern of history over the last hundred years, which shows that whenever the main body of Irish Republicanism has reached a political accommodation, a hardliner group would fragment off.”
By any reckoning, this has proved to be the case. The threat is certainly credible – and while it may be far lower than the days of the Provisional IRA’s campaign, it is becoming more sophisticated with the terrorist deploying weapons including Semtex. In the wake of the growing problem, some officers have voiced anger that the political establishment has not recognised that the PSNI is increasingly ill-equipped to deal with attacks.
They point out that military infrastructure has been largely dismantled with Northern Ireland now transformed to a peacetime garrison housing a fully deployable brigade. While Ammunition Technical Officers from the Royal Logistic Corps can provide assistance with suspect devices – and there is a public order capability available in some cases – there are concerns that the PSNI will be pushed to breaking point in the next 12 months.
Terry Spence, Chairman of the Police Federation of Northern Ireland, believes that some politicians are deluded about to the nature of the dissident threat – and that the unwillingness to accept the truth is frustrating his members.
He also warned that, after starting with 12,500 personnel 12 years ago with 13,000 soldiers in support, there are now just 7,200 PSNI officers, with numbers set to fall by 700 next year and a £230 million budget cut potentially costing 1,500 more.
“We are rapidly approaching a stage which can either become the point of no return or the opportunity to be seized which will end a terrorist campaign before it gets fully underway,” Mr Spence told the Federation’s annual conference.
“We should start by reversing some of the recent decisions on policing – the dismantling of the intelligence networks, both human and electronic was hasty and premature and de-fortification of vulnerable police stations showed worrying operational naiveté. And the rundown of The Full Time Reserve Service and failure to ring fence the severance packages of experienced officers in order to postpone their departure was utter foolishness.”
Mr Spence has also voiced concerns about the official definition of a terrorist attack as one being aimed at the security forces. He argued that – if common sense had been applied – it would have been realised that 90, rather than 34, terrorist incidents had been reported since the beginning of the year.
“Disingenuous descriptions like this only serve to undermine public confidence in the fact that we are determined to address the security situation in a credible manner,” he said. “People must stop kidding themselves and trying to fool the public – we need 1,000 extra officers to end terrorism.”
Mr Spence said there had been successes against the terrorists, with 54 arrests this year. He also said that the intelligence picture had been building and praised the co-operation of colleagues across the border in the Garda.
But with the forthcoming Olympic Games and centenary of the Titanic’s voyage in 2012 – both of which are being seen as valuable opportunities for tourism – he warned that taking no action could have serious consequences.
“Those who have come to serve in Northern Ireland should recognise that the centuries old nature of the divisions that plague our communities – those divisions remain deep seated,” he concluded. “Today’s violence cannot be dismissed as some minor obstacle on the road to peace. It is an intensification of a long-running terrorist campaign that refuses to accept democratic reality.”
It is a convincing argument. While terrorists are very much in a minority in a Northern Ireland which wants to move forward, there is still a hard core intent of causing trouble and taking the lives of police officers. Denying the problem – and failing to deploy the necessary resources – could allow the situation to gain momentum and ultimately cost lives.
Source: NIVA